If year-on-year total and core CPI consumer inflation rates accelerate, financial markets risk turbulence as investors’ 2025 interest rate cut expectations fall further.

The Federal Reserve might be unable to lower its benchmark lending rate until late in the autumn, market-derived data suggested Friday, as a global selloff in government bond markets suggests extended inflation pressures over the coming months.

But minutes from their December meeting suggest that the decision was a close call — and that there is no guarantee policymakers will lower rates again anytime soon. The minutes of the central bank’s Dec.