Before the strong December jobs report was released, the odds were already low for an interest rate cut in the next Federal Reserve decision on January 29.

Friday’s unexpectedly big increase in December nonfarm payrolls led to a diminished market-based likelihood for any rate cut by the Federal Reserve until September, based on one method of calculating expectations — and one big bank sees the risks tilting toward a rate hike.

The U.S. job market again defied an anticipated slowdown, with firms adding more than a quarter of a million jobs in the final month of 2024 and leaving Federal Reserve policymakers to puzzle over the need for more interest rate cuts in a strong economy.